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Trump Leads In Kentucky Again, But Not As Much As 2016

Kara Lofton, WVPB

President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in Kentucky’s presidential race this year, but it’s not as large as his margin of victory in 2016, according to a new poll.

Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden 56% to 39% in Kentucky according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which accurately predicted Kentucky’s close race for governor last year.

But the 17 percentage point difference is far smaller than Trump’s margin of victory in Kentucky in 2016, when he carried the state by 30 percentage points over Hillary Clinton.

Biden leads in the Louisville Metro area 55% to 41%, among registered Democrats 67% to 31% and with voters under age 35, 53% to 39%.

But Trump leads in all other regions of the state and age groups, and 88% of registered Republicans in Kentucky say they will vote for the president, compared to 5% for Biden.

Trump leads Biden in eastern Kentucky 66% to 28%, western Kentucky 65% to 30%, northern Kentucky 57% to 36% and the Lexington area 51% to 45%.

The Jacksonville, Florida-based polling firm did not release polling results of Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath.

This poll was based on calls to 625 Kentucky voters from October 12 through October 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Less than a month before Gov. Andy Beshear was elected by about 5,000 votes, a Mason-Dixon Poll showed Beshear and then-Gov. Matt Bevin in a dead heat.

Mason-Dixon has a “B+” rating according to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings.

Ryland Barton is the Managing Editor for Collaboratives. He's covered politics and state government for NPR member stations KWBU in Waco and KUT in Austin. He has a bachelor's degree from the University of Chicago and a master's degree in journalism from the University of Texas. He grew up in Lexington.

Email Ryland at
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