One moderate central Kentucky Republican is trying to get his state House seat back. A northern Kentucky Democrat who won by a mere 30 votes is trying to hold onto the party’s last seat north of Louisville. Democrats’ last eastern Kentucky seat is open after the four-term incumbent leaves office.
Nationally, Democrats are expected to clean up in the midterm elections, with some handicappers predicting close races in districts President Donald Trump won by big margins in 2024. A new poll from Politico shows that 30% or more of undecided voters say that neither decreasing gas prices, an end to the Iran war nor falling inflation would have any impact on their vote at this juncture. The latest NPR/PBS/Marist Poll found 53% of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat in their district, compared to 41% choosing the Republican.
While federal issues and Trump’s low approval ratings are hurting Congressional candidates in the polls, it’s less clear how much those factors play into state legislative races. All 100 Kentucky House seats are up for grabs this year and half of the state Senate.
In several races where state lawmakers are facing narrow paths to victory, the candidates seem to largely agree on the issues their constituents are facing — the price of housing, gas, groceries, healthcare and growing concerns over artificial intelligence and data centers. But Republicans face an extra uphill battle because Trump’s approval on inflation, the economy and trade are all underwater.
Democrats have lost ground in the Kentucky General Assembly for decades. But even as Kentuckians voted for Republicans with greater conviction for Congress and the presidency, Democrats managed to hang onto some power in state offices. However, even as the state Senate flipped to Republican control in 2000, Democrats maintained control of the House until 2016 — two decades since Kentuckians had voted to give their eight electoral votes to a Democrat.
Turnout will be key in the midterms, said Dewey Clayton, a professor of political science at the University of Louisville. Democratic and independents expected to be highly motivated while Republicans are… less so, he said.
“This is a midterm election, and generally speaking turnout is lower for that, but I do think that there's some hotbed issues that are clearly attracting people and having people becoming more involved,” Clayton said. “You have to look at who's at the top of a ticket, and so even though our current president is not running for office now, nonetheless, that clearly will weigh on voters' minds.”
Clayton noted many candidates — both on the federal and state level — are distancing themselves from Trump ahead of the elections. It’s unclear how successful a strategy that is, as the president also pushes to make the race a referendum on himself.
“It can have a mixed impact. There's a lot at stake here,” Clayton said. “I do think a lot of people are now keying in to the fact that state legislatures do have a large impact on what happens in their particular state with a lot of issues.”
At the end of election day, Republicans are essentially assured to hold onto their majorities in the state legislature. Republicans will almost certainly hold onto their veto-proof majority in the House, as Republicans are running unchallenged in 42 out of 100 seats and Democrats fielded candidates in half of the GOP-held seats up for election in the state Senate this year.
In that political environment, Democrats who won by razor thin margins in 2024 hope to grow their leads while Republicans running against them try to separate themselves from national issues that are dividing their base. Here’s how the races are shaping up in districts across Kentucky.
Rep. Adam Moore v. former Rep. Killian Timoney
Former state Rep. Killian Timoney lost his suburban Lexington and Jessamine County district by a wide margin in the 2024 primary — largely because of the moderate conservative’s “no” votes on a bill banning gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth.
It left a wider path to victory for Democrat Adam Moore, who defeated his far-right opponent by less than 200 votes. Republicans may have a small registration advantage in the district, but independent voters make up a large portion of the electorate at 13.6%.
Kentucky Public Radio caught up with Moore in Frankfort, after he led a listening session about state-wide concerns over data centers. Moore was one of the leaders in the legislature pushing for data center regulations, although it’s a separate Republican-led measure that nearly made it through the General Assembly last year. Data centers have become one of the biggest local issues of the year, and while Moore says there isn’t one planned for his district, the developments could impact his constituents regardless.
“It's not the personal in your backyard issue in the 45th district. That being said, they still care about the clean air and clean water,” Moore said. “People are still concerned about it, even though it's not on their doorstep.”
Moore said the biggest concerns in his district are the same across the state and much of the country: affordable housing, healthcare and gas. He pointed to legislation he’s filed to limit the cost of and increase health coverage of epinephrine devices like EpiPens and an affordable housing measure to limit a person from purchasing more than 50 single-family rental homes.
“They actually try to tackle some of these big things of our time,” Moore said.
Moore served in the U.S. Army Reserves before returning to Kentucky and starting a small personal fitness training business. Moore has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO, Committee for Fairness & Individual Rights and Planned Parenthood.
Meanwhile, Timoney told KPR that the constituents he meets at their front doors aren’t talking about “national-level stuff,” but are more concerned about property taxes and artificial intelligence.
“AI is transformational in so many different ways, but obviously, as a lifetime educator, one of my biggest fears is how we are going to be able to continue to challenge kids to think,” Timoney said. “That's going to be one of the battles that is going to be fought in the very near future.”
Timoney started teaching high school social studies before serving as a public school assistant principal. He’s now a special projects coordinator with Fayette County Public Schools. He was one of the few Republicans in a contested race to garner the support of the political wing of the Kentucky Education Association.
“I'm teacher-centered and I focus on what's best for kids. My education motto is ‘Pay the teachers and feed the kids,’” Timoney said. “If a teacher is thinking about their after school job that they have to work that day just to make ends meet, then that's taking away energy from kids. We need them focused solely on doing what's best for kids and connecting with children.”
Universal teacher raises are a fraught topic in Frankfort, which Democrats have long-called for but Republican leadership has dismissed, instead telling districts they can provide raises on their own through state funding. Timoney said he’s also concerned about the shift in Washington D.C. as the Department of Education is largely dismantled and states are left to handle more.
Timoney also emphasized the value of having dissenting, moderating voices within the GOP.
“I'm not afraid to have those conversations, and I'm not afraid to speak into a microphone in front of other people that may have a dissenting opinion from me,” Timoney said. “I think that's how we get better.”
Rep. Matthew Lehman v. Terry Hatton
In the tightest state legislative race of the 2024 cycle, Democratic Matthew Lehman beat Republican Terry Hatton to hang onto Democrats’ last seat in northern Kentucky — by a mere 30 votes. While northern Kentucky has long been a deep red cluster, the Cincinnati suburbs have stuck out as a blue dot.
Rep. Lehman told KPR he knows it's going to be a close election again this year, as he faces a rematch with Hatton. Lehman, who works in the biotechnology industry, considers himself a “work horse,” who focuses on the policies that affect most Kentuckians, but especially the unique challenges of northern Kentucky.
He said he hopes to weigh the benefits of explosive growth in his district while making sure constituents have a say in how that growth affects them. He pointed to everything from concerns about automated license plate readers, to secrecy around data centers, to temporary gas tax relief.
“I think we have a bit of a crisis of trust among the population, and you know that is something I really do talk a lot with my colleagues about,” Lehman said.
Hatton, a U.S. Army veteran and private security business owner, said he’s staying “away from the federal side” of politics because there’s not much state legislators can do about what goes on in D.C.
He said there are some issues — like the pervasiveness of license plate readers, housing shortages, high childcare costs, professional shortages — that he doesn’t have immediate answers for.
“That's where I can help. That's where I can roll with a seat at the table. I can communicate, bring people together, and help solve some of the challenges we have,” Hatton said.
Both men agreed it’s likely to be a tight race again this year, national headwinds or no. Democrats have a small registration advantage, but independents make up a huge portion — 18.6% of the district. As in most of the state’s tightest races, independent voters are likely to make the final decision.
Election Day is Nov. 3 and in-person, no excuse voting runs from Oct. 29 to 31. Check out the Kentucky Public Radio voter guide to find out who will be on your ballot.
