The only Democratic seat in the Kentucky General Assembly left in the central time zone is a top target for the GOP in this year’s elections.
Democratic State Representative Patti Minter was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in a landslide in 2020. Kentucky’s 20th House district contained some of the most diverse precincts in the commonwealth, a reliably Democratic bloc of voters that formed Minton’s core group of supporters in her first two campaigns. That all changed with Republicans in charge of writing new maps for legislative districts after the 2020 census. Minter’s district was surgically redrawn, removing key Democratic areas in favor of Republican-heavy precincts. It was a deliberate attempt to pack Republicans into a district that has sent Democrats to Frankfort for decades, according to Western Kentucky University political science professor Joel Turner.
“The Republicans have been trying, this is their second time trying to knock Minter off. I know they’re really invested in this and hoping to get a victory,” Turner said.
Turner said Minter’s incumbency and name recognition may give her a leg up, but it’ll still be a tough race.
“With the changes in districts, it’s gonna be the most uphill battle that she has faced so far.”
The candidate chosen by Warren County Republicans to challenge Minter is Kevin Jackson. He is a financial advisor but previously retired as a teacher and administrator in local school districts. He also serves on the Warren County School Board. While out on the campaign trail, he said he believes the political split in the newly-drawn 20th district is more fair.
“With the Republicans being in charge of the House and the Senate, they wanted to get that number back closer to 50-50. I think it’s still a few more Democrats than Republicans. We still have a ways to go to get 50-50 in this district,” Jackson said.
Minter disagrees. She said her district’s new map is partisan gerrymandering.
“It’s taking people who’ve lived their entire lives in House District 20. It’s taking people who have been part of the city and splitting the city in half, moving the district into the county to engineer the outcome, or to attempt to engineer the outcome. And that’s the very definition of gerrymandering,” Minter said.
With redistricting making the 20th a competitive seat for Republicans, both sides have responded with massive fundraising hauls and ad buys. Each campaign has raked in more than 160-thousand dollars in donations, with political action committees, or PACs, entering the fray as well. That includes Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, a PAC founded by Republican strategist and Mitch McConnell ally Scott Jennings. The group is running negative ads against Minter.
Jackson said he’s running a positive campaign at the local level. Candidates aren’t allowed to coordinate with PACs, and Jackson said he wasn't aware of what outside groups had planned to do ahead of Election Day.
“We’ve tried to be open, we’ve tried to be transparent, everything above board. What you see is what you get,” Jackson said. “We have raised a lot of money, but I’ve been very fortunate that the people we have associated with our campaign are top-notch people here in Bowling Green.”
Minter said she’s also proud of the campaign she’s run, and explained she wants to bring that same leadership back to Frankfort in her closing pitch to voters.
“I will always stand up and show up for you. I’ve done that on insulin, I’ve done that on public schools, I’ve done that on tornado relief and recovery and many other bills. I look forward to the results of this election and I look forward to going back and representing the people of the best district in Kentucky,” Minter said.
While Minter is touting her accomplishments and willingness to keep fighting for Bowling Green in an increasingly GOP-dominated chamber, Jackson said he’s better-poised to represent the city as a member of the House majority.
“We have one of the fastest growing communities in the state, expected to have over 200,000 people by 2050. We need the best representation that we can get, somebody that can get as much done for this community as possible,” Jackson said.
The outcome of this race won't determine which party controls the state House in January, given the Republicans currently control 75 of 100 seats in the chamber. Democratic power in the General Assembly is mostly concentrated in Louisville and Lexington. However, both sides are hoping for a victory to provide momentum to their party’s strength in western Kentucky.
